Climate, Poverty, and Justice

What the Poznan UN climate conference needs to deliver for a fair and effective global deal

Climate change is the number one threat to human development. Yet progress towards limiting global warming to below 2°C has not been sufficient.

The global effort required to reduce emissions and support the poorest and most vulnerable people to adapt to unavoidable changes must be based on objective indicators of countries’ historic responsibilities for causing the crisis, and their capabilities to confront it.

The Poznan climate talks must mark a turning point in international negotiations, switching from analysis and discussion to full negotiation mode. For the sake of people and the planet there is no more time to lose.

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Polish (PDF)

Summary

For the poorest and most vulnerable people in today’s world, climate change is a ‘triple whammy’: they didn’t cause it, they are most affected by it, and they are least able to afford even simple measures that could help protect them from those damaging impacts that are already unavoidable.

Increased floods and droughts, rising sea levels, changing patterns of rainfall, and falling crop yields are just some of the extra challenges hitting poor people across the developing world. But much worse is to come unless a bold and comprehensive global political deal is done to fight climate change and consign poverty to the history books. Today, climate change is the number one threat to human development. For many, it is already a life or death issue.

Poznań must agree the key elements of a deal

As governments convene for the next round of UN talks in Poznań, Poland, time is running out. Poznań must mark a major step forward and build on the consensus achieved in Bali a year ago. Negotiators must narrow the focus of talks but also ensure that key elements for a fair and adequate deal remain on the table, so that a deal can be sealed at the concluding talks in Copenhagen in December 2009. For generations ahead – and for millions of the poorest people now and in future – Copenhagen must be remembered as a turning point, the date when the world chose to halt runaway climate change and create the conditions for low-carbon, climate-resilient development for all.

If governments in Poznań fail to energise the negotiations, they will effectively undermine poor people’s basic rights on a massive scale. They will be responsible for exacerbating climate change, increasing poverty, and so halting and then reversing human development.

Global warming: impacts on the poorest people

Global warming has already reached 0.8°C over pre-industrial levels. To avoid catastrophic and irreversible climate impacts, global warming must remain well below 2°C. While the physical response of the Earth’s systems to ongoing greenhouse-gas emissions is non-negotiable, the level of risk we will all face in years to come is the most critical element of current UN negotiations. Inaction or low ambition means increased risks, faced by poor people first and worst. There is a window of opportunity in which to cut emissions and minimise catastrophic risks, but it is closing fast.

Even below 2°C, there will be major, often devastating impacts, on the lives of the poorest people, and on poorer countries. As an example, with this level of warming, as many as 1.8 billion people will be affected by water stress due to shrinking water availability. But if emissions are not cut and temperatures rise beyond the 2°C limit, then the world will face catastrophic consequences, dashing any near-term prospect of overcoming poverty. If global temperatures rise to 3°C, up to 600 million more people will face the risk of hunger, and water shortages could affect up to 4 billion people. Worse scenarios arise if temperatures rise beyond 4°C: 300 million facing coastal flooding; many island nations doomed; 1.5–2.5 billion people exposed to dengue fever; and a 50 per cent decrease in water availability from South Africa to Latin America to the Mediterranean.

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Publication date: December 2008